How Underwater Mortgages Can Float the Economy

We have previously written about the plight of homeowners whose homes are now worth less than the mortgage. Some have decided to walk away from property while others are making their mortgage payments. In the face of low mortgage interest rates, refinancing would be a good idea but with LTVs, loan to value ratios, being what they are homeowners cannot refinance.


The Federal government stepped in with a program allowing banks to make loans up to 125% of LTV, but there have been few loans made.

The Sunday New York Times carries an Op-ed on the issue written by Glenn Hubbard and Chris Mayer.

“RECENT calls for another federal stimulus package raise an important question: Before considering costly short-term measures to raise overall consumer demand, have we done enough to ensure that financial markets will work properly and lead us to recovery? For housing — the sector at the center of the crisis — the answer is no. But the good news is that it might be possible to improve the housing market and invigorate the economy in a way that won’t require a costly stimulus package.

“In a normally functioning mortgage market, almost all homeowners would have refinanced their mortgages to take advantage of low rates. Yet today, low interest rates are doing little to stimulate the housing market because of other stresses, including declines in house prices, falling household incomes and banks’ wariness of making loans.

“To change this dynamic, we propose a new program through which the federal government would direct the public and quasi-public entities that guarantee mortgages — Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac, Ginnie Mae, the Department of Veterans Affairs loan-guarantee program and the Federal Housing Administration — to make it far easier and quicker for homeowners to refinance.”

Whoa, haven’t we been down this road? But, they write,

“This program would be simple: the agencies would direct loan servicers — the middlemen who monitor and report loan payments — to send a short application to all eligible borrowers promising to allow them to refinance with minimal paperwork. Servicers would receive a fixed fee for each mortgage they refinanced, which would be rolled into the mortgage to eliminate costs to taxpayers.”

How does this work in dollars and cents?

“Consider a family that bought a home in 2006 for $225,000, taking out a $200,000 fixed-rate mortgage at the prevailing 6 percent interest rate with monthly payments of about $1,200. That home is now worth about $175,000. The family still owes $189,000 and thus cannot refinance because they are underwater.

“But under our proposal, the family would be offered a new mortgage at today’s prevailing rate of 4.3 percent. The family would see a 15 percent decline in their monthly mortgage payment, saving more than $2,000 per year. This would not only help homeowners through the current crisis, but would be the equivalent of a 26-year tax cut of more than 4 percent of income, assuming the family spends around 30 percent of income on housing.”

But prior experience has shown mortgage programs to be a bust. They know that and ask,

“What went wrong? First, the program was not widely publicized relative to the federal government’s efforts to help with more modest loan modifications. Second, the refinancings require substantial upfront costs for borrowers. Third, many borrowers — those with second liens or shaky incomes — were locked out. (About 20 percent of all borrowers with federally backed mortgages have a second lien.) Last, many borrowers do not know the current value of their homes, and are reluctant to pay to get an appraisal only to be turned down for a refinancing.

“THE program we propose addresses these issues. It would have minimal costs, which we would roll into the cost of the mortgage rather than forcing homeowners to make a big upfront payment. For mortgages with second liens, the government could request a blanket approval from all servicers to allow the new mortgages to have priority over existing second ones. It is in the interest of the servicers of second liens to allow such refinancings, because they reduce payments on the first mortgage and thus lower default risk on the second lien.”

Seems like common sense to me, what do you think? Read the full Op-ed.
Glenn Hubbard, the chairman of the Council of Economic Advisers under President George W. Bush and the co-author of “Seeds of Destruction: Why the Path to Economic Ruin Runs Through Washington, and How to Reclaim American Prosperity,” is the dean of the Columbia Business School, where Chris Mayer is a senior vice dean.

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